Breaking Down #UChiLaw13


(Cross-posted at the University of Chicago Law School Electronic Projects Blog)
The Law School has had a robust social media presence for quite a few years now, but we’ve never really attempted to do a full social media offensive for an event like graduation. Mostly, this is due to the fact that our staff is so small that graduation is an all-hands-on-deck sort of event, so having anyone devoting themselves to social media during the ceremony is a luxury we can’t really afford. This year was no different, but, inspired by stories I heard at HighEdWeb Michigan of some of the commencement social media wins pulled off by other institutions, I decided it was time to take on the challenge anyway. By most every measure, we had a fairly successful go at it, especially considering the dearth of resources that we had to throw at the task (the sum total of which was basically my iPhone and me). Here are some things I think we did right:

  • Coordinate with larger units. I reached out to the University’s social media curator very early on, to make sure that a) we wouldn’t be duplicating hashtags, and b) on the day of graduation, when our #uchilaw13 hashtag started popping up next to the University’s #uchigrad13 hashtag, they would know what the heck it meant.
  • Start rolling out your hashtag early. We wanted to get the hashtag lodged in the brain of our audience as best we could beforehand, so we began a couple of weeks before the big day by including our hashtag on the Facebook event we had created. We also created and promoted a Spotify playlist called #UChiLaw13 about a week before graduation, and in the days leading up to it posted a couple of Instagram photos and a Vine tour of Rockefeller Chapel using the hashtag.
  • Don’t be afraid to try new things. This was our first time using Spotify, Instagram, and Vine as social platforms for the Law School. We weren’t sure what their adoption rates have been yet for our community, but figured that this would be a good opportunity to try them out as low-risk, high upside social options. Instagram was especially successful, I think, since it allowed us to cross-post photos to both Facebook and Twitter as well.
  • Create a central hub from which your audience can find you on the platform of their choice. Since we were using so many different platforms, we created a page on the website called #UChiLaw13 (where we also embedded our streaming simulcast) that listed most the different ways to get social around this event. We also used Tagboard as a way to aggregate all of these channels; this proved especially useful on the day of the event as a way to track everything that was going on.  
  • Make sure you reach out to your audience. We made certain that the graduating student we knew to be on Twitter knew about the hashtag by @’ing them a couple of days before, asking if they were getting excited yet; we also let all of our faculty know about the hashtag the morning of graduation, and were pretty successful in getting them to pick it up.

Some stats, as of 6/18:
Facebook

  • “People Talking About This Page” up 261% from the previous week, Weekly Total Reach up 88%
  • Total reach for all #UChiLaw13-related posts: 23,250, of which 4,072 were viral; 1624 engaged users (about 7% of users reached)
  • Posts from the day of graduation: 10,213 reached, of which 899 were viral; 854 engaged users (about 8% of users reached)
  • By way of comparison, during the month leading up to and including graduation last year, our engagement was 3.5% of reach.

Other platforms:

  • 93 posts using hashtag across all platforms
  • 792 visits to uchilaw13 page
  • 443 views of Storify recap
  • 126 clicks on Spotify playlist
  • 63 clicks on Tagboard link

So what do you think? Did we try to do too much? Too little? How can we improve the social media experience for next year’s graduation?

Higher Ed Live Video Recap of #hewebMI

Instead of my usual post-conference round-up, after last week’s HighEdWeb Michigan I had the chance to be on the Higher Ed Live video recap with a couple of the organizers and some of my fellow attendees. Aside from the ADD-inducing nature of watching real-time feedback flowing in over Twitter, and attempting to talk and tweet at the same time while never having any idea whether I was “on-camera” or not, it was a fun experience… almost as fun as hanging out with all these great colleagues in real life. Video of the recap is embedded below.

Higher Ed Web Org Chart: Separation from the Top

Another quick update on the data from my survey of web departments in the higher ed hierarchy, as I delve a little bit deeper into the data. This time I looked at the number of levels that separate the web department from university presidents (or their equivalents). This info is somewhat less than exact, as it requires a bit of parsing of the data, as I didn’t exactly ask the question in that form; rather, the answers are culled from the more vaguely worded “As best you can, please describe the chain of command as it relates to the web group.” 

In any case, there is an average of 1.8 levels of hierarchy between the head of web departments and the leaders of their schools. Unsurprisingly, large schools seem to have slightly more levels present, but the difference is not large: 1.9  for schools of over 5000 students (n=34), 1.7 for smaller schools (n= 35). Interestingly, schools where the web department exists within IT seem to have fewer layers between the web and the president: (1.5, n=11) vs. (1.7, n=51) for those where the web lives under marketing. 

Higher Ed Web Org Chart: Large Schools

Further breaking down the data the data from my survey of higher ed web organizations, below is a breakdown of schools identified as having more than 5,000 students (n=55). There were no huge surprises, the major differences with small schools being that large schools tend to be less centralized and have larger staffs (my heart breaks for the Armies of One at these large schools!). Perhaps reflecting their more decentralized models, large schools’ web departments are slightly more likely to charge other departments for their services and significantly less likely (0% of respondents!) to have their heads report directly to the university’s president. They are also slightly more likely to still be contained within IT departments (perhaps reflecting the difficulty of fighting organizational inertia in a large institution?). Finally, large schools seem, oddly, to be less inclined to provide information architecture services.

How centralized is the production and maintenance of the web at your school?

  • 1 (very centralized): 13% 
  • 2: 20% 
  • 3: 33% 
  • 4: 24% 
  • 5 (very decentralized): 11%

The group that does *the majority* of your institution’s web work is part of:

  • Marketing/Communications/PR: 56% 
  • IT: 25% 
  • Some combination of the above or other: 18% 

How many people work for that web group?

  • 1: 4% 
  • 2-5: 55% 
  • 5-10: 25%
  • Over 10: 16% 

Are you a part of that web group?

  • Yes: 87% 
  • No: 13%

What kind of tasks does that web group perform?

  • Website Development 96%
  • Visual Design 91%
  • Information Architecture 84%
  • Content Strategy and/or Production 75%
  • Application Development 69%  
  • Social Media Management 62%
  • Server Administration 35% 
  • Other 5% 

To whom does the head of the web group report?

  • VP or Dean: 36%
  • Other: 25%
  • CIO: 18%
  • Assistant VP or Assistant Dean: 16%
  • None: 4%
  • CTO: 2%
  • President or equivalent: 0%
Does the group that you identified as  performing the majority of web work at your institution charge other departments at the institution for its services? (n=15)
  • No: 73%
  • Sometimes/It depends: 13%
  • Yes: 13%

Quick Thoughts on Kickstarter

Yesterday actor/director Zach Braff made a stir by launching a Kickstarter campaign to raise $2 million to finance a new film called Wish I Was Here. This is the second major film project, after the Veronica Mars movie, to attempt to finance itself via the crowdsourcing website in recent days. Some artists I know are taking a dim view of such projects, arguing that artists who could otherwise receive “traditional” financing are exploiting both the new business model (which was intended to support small, independent projects) and their fans, who are investing in projects (and thereby alleviating already-wealthy artists’ risk) without any of the financial returns that traditional investors could expect to see.

I can see the point. However, I tend to be of the opinion that the primary downside to already-established artists crowdsourcing their projects’ financing is that it may funnel what is likely a finite set of donors’ dollars away from encouraging new artists—replicating the problem that has stultified the Hollywood studio system and the big record labels, and that tools like Kickstarter were created to solve; of course, chances are that if someone has the ducats to send Zach Braff ten grand, they probably wouldn’t blink at laying out another 50 bucks for your boardgame about being a gay golddigger.

Other than that, though, I still think Kickstarter’s odd mix of feudalism and capitalism isn’t bad for either artists or their fans, no matter who is using it to raise however much money. It’s feudalistic in that it’s a return to a much older form of funding art: patronage. Like Kickstarter patrons, when a Venetian nobleman commissioned a painter to create a triptych for an altar, they did not expect financial returns; they did for social (and perhaps spiritual) capital, the satisfaction of having made something beautiful possible (and of being known to have made that thing possible). Of course, there is a crucial difference in that Michelangelo did not receive royalties or residuals, as Zach Braff is likely to do; but then again, the Guild of Wool probably didn’t receive David t-shirts, either.

But, as I mentioned, Kickstarter also manages to combine feudal patronage with pure market capitalism:  Braff has created a market in which consumers can express the true value that his work has to them. To me, the ability to see a new Zach Braff movie might be worth the ten dollars I’d pay to see it in the theater; to others, the ability to see that movie (and, importantly, to have that movie be made exactly as Braff wants it, without the interference of meddling producers) is evidently worth a thousand times that much. Of course, they’re also paying for the ability to see themselves as being involved in the production, to accompany Braff to the premiere, etc. All in all, I don’t see much, if any, harm in this. People get a greater say in the art that they want to experience, while artists have the chance to make the art that they want to make while not having to satisfy the desires of investors whose motivation is primarily economic. Seems like a win-win to me.

Higher Ed Web Org Chart: Small Schools

Following up on my last post, here are stats specifically for small schools (under 5,000 students, n=45). Stats for larger schools to come.

How centralized is the production and maintenance of the web at your school?

  • 1 (very centralized): 31% 
  • 2: 13% 
  • 3: 24% 
  • 4: 24% 
  • 5 (very decentralized): 7% 

The group that does *the majority* of your institution’s web work is part of:

  • Marketing/Communications/PR: 62% 
  • IT: 20% 
  • Some combination of the above or other: 18% 

How many people work for that web group?

  • 1: 27% 
  • 2-5: 67% 
  • 5-10: 7%
  • Over 10: 0% 

Are you a part of that web group?

  • Yes: 96% 
  • No: 4% 

What kind of tasks does that web group perform?

  • Information Architecture 100%
  • Website Development 91%
  • Visual Design 82%
  • Content Strategy and/or Production 80%
  • Social Media Management 62%
  • Application Development 51%  
  • Server Administration 40%  
  • Other 4% 

To whom does the head of the web group report?

  • VP or Dean: 31%
  • President or equivalent: 20%
  • Other: 20%
  • CIO: 18%
  • Assistant VP or Assistant Dean: 13%
  • CTO: 0%
Does the group that you identified as  performing the majority of web work at your institution charge other departments at the institution for its services? (n=13)
  • No: 85%
  • Sometimes/It depends: 8%
  • Yes: 8%

Web in the Higher Ed Org Chart

At next month’s HighEdWeb Michigan conference, I’ll be presenting a talk titled “The Dream Org Chart,” in which I’ll examine some of the different organizational models within which institutions of higher education place their web teams, and suggest a model that I believe would solve some of the challenges that institutions face in the maintenance of a high-quality web presence.

To gather data for the first part of the presentation, I set up a Google form and turned to my colleagues on Twitter and the UWebD mailing list. Exactly one hundred responses rolled in over just a few days, far more than I had planned on or even hoped for. I am no longer surprised by the kindness and generosity of spirit that resides in the higher ed web community, but I continue to be thrilled and humbled by it.

Sifting through all of this data will take some time, but I will continue to post here as I analyze it, and will of course post my final presentation here as well. Clearly, there is a hunger for this information in the community, so I am happy to make the responses public (please note that I have had to update this link). I have stripped as much identifying data as possible.

So without further ado, some initial numbers are below. How these numbers relate to your expectations? Any surprises, or suspicions confirmed?

What size is your institution?

  • Under 1,000 students: 5% 
  • Between 1,000-5,000 students: 40% 
  • Between 5,000-10,000 students:14% 
  • Over 10,000 students: 41% 

How centralized is the production and maintenance of the web at your school?

  • 1 (very centralized): 21% 
  • 2: 17% 
  • 3: 29% 
  • 4: 24% 
  • 5 (very decentralized): 9% 

The group that does *the majority* of your institution’s web work is part of:

  • Marketing/Communications/PR: 59% 
  • IT: 23% 
  • Some combination of the above: 12% 
  • Other: 6% 

How many people work for that web group?

  • 1: 14% 
  • 2-5: 60% 
  • 5-10: 17% 
  • Over 10: 9% 

Are you a part of that web group?

  • Yes: 91% 
  • No: 9% 

What kind of tasks does that web group perform?

  • Website Development 94%
  • Information Architecture 87% 
  • Visual Design 87%
  • Content Strategy and/or Production 77%
  • Social Media Management 61%
  • Application Development 58%  
  • Server Administration 36%  
  • Other 9% 

To whom does the head of the web group report?

  • VP or Dean: 31%
  • Other: 28%
  • CIO: 16%
  • Assistant VP or Assistant Dean: 14%
  • President or equivalent: 9%
  • CTO: 1%
I also asked one follow-up question of those who had shared their email addresses with me, namely:
Does the group that you identified as  performing the majority of web work at your institution charge other departments at the institution for its services? (n=26 27)
  • No: 81%
  • Sometimes/It depends: 12 11%
  • Yes: 8 7%

Marshall McLuhan and the Tactile Web

The following is an adaptation to an article form of the presentation I did at HighEdWeb 2012 that I attempted to get published on A List Apart; unfortunately, after several rounds of edits, we weren’t able to come to a mutually satisfying vision of what the article should be. So I present it here for your perusal instead. Big thanks to Rose Weisburd of ALA and her fellow readers for all of their suggestions in tightening up what could have been a sprawling mess of an article.

In 1965, Marshall McLuhan published what quickly became one of the founding documents of modern media theory, Understanding Media. In it, McLuhan contended that media are essentially extensions of human senses: print is an extension of the eye, the phonograph and radio of the ear, and so on. McLuhan, who died in 1981, did not live to see the rise of the web, but he predicted that the sense being extended in what he called the “electric age” was that of touch. With the growing omnipresence of tactile interfaces like those of the iPhone and similar devices, the medium of the web is already becoming something that we touch, as much as we see and hear it. What will the tactile web look (and feel) like, and how might McLuhan’s theory of media help those of us who build websites think about it?

The Rise of the Tactile Web

We tend to think of the web as an audio-visual medium. Whether we are consuming or producing text, image, podcast, or video, the web is undoubtedly a feast for the eyes and the ears. Yet in many ways, the personal computing revolution, and by extension, the rise of the web, has been a story in which we – quite literally – manipulate data with our hands. In adopting the graphical user interface, the mouse, and then the laptop trackpad, we have adopted a method of interacting with data that is both metaphorically (“pointing” with an arrow or the digital rendering of a small hand) and physically (“clicking,” or tapping the mouse button with our own fingers) tactile. As web designers, we constantly rely on the metaphor of tactility to shape user experience and create the illusion of three dimensional space on two-dimensional screens. At the subtle end of the spectrum, you might think of submit buttons that appear to depress slightly when the user “presses” them; at the absurd end of the spectrum, the various skeumorphic UIs being ridiculed on skeu.it.

Beginning with the iPhone, a new generation of devices has now brought the web to the tips of our fingers, foregrounding physical tactility over the metaphorical. A new language of gestures, swipes, and taps is quickly replacing the old one of point-and-click, and with new hardware like the Leap this new language is making its way onto the desktop as well. At the moment those interested in making use of these methods of user interaction are stuck creating native apps for different operating systems, but future versions of HTML, CSS, and Javascript will almost certainly have to reckon with the new gestural lingua franca with which we interact with the web. Forget onClick and a:hover; what about onPinch and a:Swipe?

And just around the corner is a brand-new generation of devices that will respond to the user’s touch with tactile responses of their own. The vibration motor and accelerometer in, say, an iPhone, can provide a limited amount of what is called “haptic feedback;” for example, if the user’s avatar goes off the track in a racing game, the device’s motor may activate to approximate the sensation of driving off of the smooth asphalt onto the rough earth that surrounds it. Some new technologies, however, look to extend devices’ haptic feedback capabilities far beyond simple vibration. Technologies like that being produced by Senseg use electrostatic forces to simulate different tactile sensations, while the Tactus microfluid touch screen actually creates small bubbles beneath the screen to simulate keyboard keys, technologies that will no doubt find other, more ingenious, applications in the future, from allowing text to be displayed in braille to the reproduction of 3D maps.

Now imagine a world in which technologies like this are standardized across platforms, and available to web designers. We are already building websites that our users are touching; it’s only a matter of time before we’re building websites that touch back.

McLuhan and the Web

The web, of course, did not yet exist during the lifetime of McLuhan. Nevertheless, I think a key part of his understanding of media is applicable to the tactile web. McLuhan’s primary means of differentiating between media was a spectrum that ranged from “hot” to “cool.” Hot media are dense with information, and as a result require little participation or interaction from the receiver of the medium, while cool media contain little information and therefore require more work from the receiver to parse the content contained therein. A photograph, rich in information and requiring little interaction by the viewer, is hot; a comic strip, made up of a few penstrokes that require the viewer to cognitively assemble them into a coherent whole, is cool. The “hotness” or “coolness” of a medium is thus an inherent part of that medium; some media demand participation through small amounts of stimuli, while others, rich with data, overwhelm the audience and are passively consumed.

Perhaps surprisingly, McLuhan favorite example of cool, participatory media is one that we tend to think of today as a passive one: television. Its low level of detail (in the year of Understanding Media’s publication, only half of primetime programming was in color) made it a “cool,” participatory medium, and its small screens (the largest available in 1965 was a whopping 25 inches, or roughly the size of the monitor I sit a foot from every
day at work) encouraged audiences to sit close to the set and become absorbed in the picture.

The TV image is visually low in data… [it] offers some three million dots per second to the receiver. From these he accepts only a few dozen each instant, from which to make an image… [T]he viewer… unconsciously reconfigures the dots into an abstract work of art on the pattern of a Seurat or Rouault… The TV image requires each instant that we “close” the spaces in the mesh by a convulsive sensuous participation that is profoundly kinetic and tactile, because tactility is the interplay of the senses, rather than the isolated contact of skin and object. (Understanding Media, MIT Press, 2002. p. 313-4)

Far from being a medium to be passively “watched,” to McLuhan television was a fully sensory experience in which the viewer is an active participant. Surrounding and enveloping the actively-engaged viewer, television became an extension not just of the eye, but of the all the sense organs, including (though not limited to) the skin. A medium does not require the characteristic of tactility to be cool, but tactility makes already cool media even cooler.

The tactile web that is being born around us today, I contend, bears a great deal of resemblance to McLuhan’s theorization of television. Just as McLuhan considered it impossible to passively view television, I would argue that it is impossible to passively receive the web. One does not simply “watch” the web; to acquire any information from it, one must engage the web. At the very least one “surfs” it by navigating an un-predetermined path of links between pages; at the most one helps build it, whether by contributing content (even something as seemingly insignificant as a blog comment) or code.

Mobile devices make this engagement even more evident: think of all the times you’ve stood on a busy street, oblivious to the traffic around you while absorbed in data coming through your phone from halfway around the world. The small screens of our devices in many ways echo the low-resolution TVs of the 60s, while our touchscreens and earbud-cocoons assist in capturing our attentions and “demand[ing] participation and involvement in depth of the whole being.” As with McLuhan’s conception of television, our interaction with the web is not “the isolated contact of skin and object,” but “a convulsive sensuous participation that is profoundly kinetic and tactile.” The web, as it becomes increasingly tactile, is becoming increasingly immersive.

Building an immersive, tactile web

As the builders of the web, what do we gain by thinking of the web as a “cool,” tactile, and participatory medium? McLuhan thought the transformative power of television lay in its ability to sensually immerse a large population in complex symbolic processes; his preferred example was the Kennedy funeral. I think we’ve been watching similar changes on the web with regard to social platforms like Twitter and Facebook, which permit us to participate simultaneously with people we’ve never met in cultural events from the Super Bowl to the Arab Spring. The cool, tactile web permits us to be absorbed into those events like never before through the interactions between our devices and our eyes, ears, and fingers. For those who create these platforms, a realization of participating in something larger than “just” building a website will be essential to success. Part of the reason we’re still talking about Facebook and Twitter today is because they have done such a fine job of adapting to the shift from small, niche websites to global information platforms that facilitate and encourage such absorption.

Of course, the television analogy outlined above is not a perfect one. While a given page, particularly one that has been optimized for consumption on a mobile device, is likely to be experienced by a user as cool, i.e. low in information density, the web itself might be thought of as hot, dense with information in a manner that nearly defies human comprehension. The job of the web builder, then, is to funnel an inherently hot medium into a cool form that is not only comprehensible to users, but also keeps them engaged long enough to accomplish the task which they have elected to undertake. The best web designs, to this way of thinking, present just enough of the nearly infinite available set of information to encourage continued interaction with the site, while keeping enough information hidden to avoid overwhelming users.

The tactile web will of course have important implications in accessibility (might images soon be required to have alt-textures in addition to alt-text?) as well as in the types of content that we’ll be able and/or required to produce (imagine e-commerce sites which include the ability for customers to “feel” the material of clothing they’re purchasing). User testing will likely become even more vital to our work, as the sense of touch could prove even more subjective than the sense of sight.

Even the tools with which we work will likely change as a result of the tactile web. For example, I’ve often thought of working with CSS as being not unlike sculpting with clay, carefully molding the raw material of markup and shaving pixels off of margins until the form in your head emerges onto the screen; it may very well be that a new generation of coding tools will make that metaphor significantly closer to reality, allowing us to build websites with the mediation between our hands and our machines nearly invisible.

Take a moment to step back from the site you’re working on right now and ask yourself: what would it feel like if you could touch it? How would you shape it, and how would your users experience it? How might you take advantage of tactile technologies to improve upon that experience?

These are questions that you might have to answer sooner than you think.

Design Lab: Concealed Carry vs. Violent Crime

A few years back, after a one-day class with information-design rock star Edward Tufte, I decided to try my hand at creating a complex infographic by charting violent crime rates in different states against a number of variables, including strictness of gun control laws, poverty rate, and diversity. The biggest problem with this attempt was that it contained no temporal index. My father, an ardent gun-rights supporter, suggested that I look instead at how crime rates change after laws prohibiting the carrying of concealed weapons are repealed; the argument from gun-rights advocates, of course, is that if criminals are unsure who might be carrying a weapon then everyone is less likely to be the victim of crime. I decided to take him up on the proposition, and have spent the last year or so working on the graphics displayed below. Little did I know that by the time I was finished with them, the Seventh Circuit would have struck down Illinois’ status as the last state with a total ban on concealed carry or that the nation would be embroiled in a passionate debate over the place of guns within our society after Newtown.

I should state at the outset that my interest in creating these images is less in influencing social policy — I am not naive enough to think that I have much chance in doing that — than in testing my ability to communicate information about large amounts of data. I also recognize that, not being a statistician, there are certainly more sophisticated ways of analyzing the same data that I have examined here; should this post happen to inspire someone with more statistical chops to check my findings, so much the better. All of that said, I think the data I’ve accumulated here (also available in this spreadsheet) speaks pretty powerfully to the question of whether permitting citzens to carry concealed weapons has a deterrent effect on violent crime.

A few notes on sources and terminology: stats on violent crime are easy to find via the FBI, but it is surprisingly difficult to find official information about when changes in gun laws have been made. The closest I could find to a comprehensive survey of changes in concealed carry laws was the cheekily named pro-gun site Radical Gun Nuttery!, which provides a list of dates and a (partial) list of citations for those dates. States are ranked as having concealed carry laws that fall into one of four classifications:

  • no-issue (allows no private citizen to carry a concealed weapon)
  • may-issue (allows concealed carry with a permit that may be granted at the discretion of some local government office)
  • shall-issue (acquiring a permit only requires meeting a predetermined set of criteria)
  • unrestricted (no permit required)
For the first part of this project, I looked at 27 states whose laws changed from either no- or may-issue to shall-issue or unrestricted between 1982 and 2009. Since crime rates can fluctuate from year to year for any number of reasons, I looked at the five years before and the five years after the laws were changed. The graph below shows those changes, along with the national average and, for perspective, four states (Illinois, New York, California, and Vermont) that underwent no changes over that time period.

Aside from a few anomalies (such as Alaska’s increase after going unrestricted or Vermont’s consistent rate over many years), the graph would appear to largely bear out my initial hypothesis that gun laws have little effect one way or the other on violent crime rates — nearly all of the pre- and post-change violent crime rates track closely with the national average, as do the rates of states that underwent no change.
However, I decided to look more closely at the data and compared the five-year average before each state’s change and after with the changes in the national average over the same times. This turns out to be a clearer picture of possible effects of the change in gun laws, and the picture is striking. Only four states appear to have had positive outcomes in relation to the national crime rate, while 23 had negative outcomes.

Positive
  • National average increased, state average decreased: 1 (OR)
  • National average decreased, state average decreased more: 2 (KY, TX)
  • National average increased, state average increased less: 1 (PA)
Negative
  • National average decreased, state average increased: 6 (AK, OH, CO, MN, TN, UT)
  • National average increased, state average increased more: 6 (MS, ID, FL, GA, MT, WV)
  • National average decreased, state average decreased less: 11 (AR, AZ, OK, MO, NC, SC,  NM, LA, MI, NV, VA)
Overall, states that switched from no-issue to shall-issue laws had an average change 10.13 percentage points worse than the national average, while those going from may-issue to shall-issue fared an average of 7.68 percentage points worse. So, on average, if the national violent crime rate was going up over a given time period, the average state that transitioned to more permissive concealed carry laws saw its violent crime rate grow faster than the national rate; if the national rate was going down, transitioning states saw their crime rate fall more slowly than the national average. This suggests that not only does greater ability to carry concealed weapons not deter violent crime, it may in fact exacerbate it.
Finally, just to make sure limiting my data to five-year averages wasn’t hampering my view in some way, I looked at how no-issue states’ violent crime rates in comparison to the national average over more than two decades. If, as the argument for concealed carry goes, a citizenry without the ability to legally carry concealed weapons is easy prey for criminals, then one would expect no-issue states to have, on average, violent crime rates higher than the national average. In fact, however, as the graph below indicates, the average violent crime rate for no-issue states was consistently below the national average (the weight of the red line indicates the number of no-issue states, while the red dots indicate the distribution of states). Until the sample size shrank to two, the majority of no-issue states had violent crime rates below the national average. Once again, we’re left with evidence that, at the very least, the inability for citizens to legally carry concealed weapons does not necessarily encourage violent crime.

So… what do you think of these graphics? How could they, or the data communicated in them, be improved?